Top Tier
Jose Berrios (MIN)
Berrios comes into this start against the White Sox looking to bounce back from two straight poor starts, and he will On the season he’s posted a 9.35 K/9 with a 26.3 percent K rate. The righties O-swing rate is strong at 31.5 percent and swinging strike rate is a stout 10.8 percent. Berrios has owned the White Sox in his young career over 32.1 innings (five starts). Over that span, Berrios has 42 strikeouts and has allowed just eight walks, 19 hits, and has a 1.67 ERA. In his one start against them this season he went seven innings shutout innings, struck out 11, allowed three hits, and didn’t walk a batter. The White Sox strike out 22.9 percent of their plate appearances against right-handed pitchers while walking just 7.5 percent of the time. Berrios should be a popular play on both sites at his inexpensive salary but he’s a top option nonetheless.
J.A. Happ (TOR)
Happ should be another popular option facing a mediocre Rays team. I’m not as high on Happ as I am on Berrios but he surely needs to be considered. The lefty has gone seven innings in each of his last two outings and has struck out at least eight batters in four of his five outings. On the season, he has a 12.50 K/9 with a 34 percent K rate and just a 4.8 percent walk rate. His swinging strike rate is 13.1 percent thus far, which is due for some regression as his previous career high was 9.6 percent two years ago (last year he was at 9.4 percent).
Gerrit Cole (HOU)
There is no question that Gerrit Cole has been the best pitcher in the American League this year, maybe even in all of baseball. However, Cole comes in third for me amongst the guys I would rank in the top tier for tonight. He’s pitching in a hitters park, the roof should be open, and it’s going to be very warm. The Diamondbacks are a team that I never like to pick on, especially at home. Combining Cole’s salary on both sites, the other options at hand, and the matchup for him, I’m not as enthusiastic.
Mid Tier and Value and SP2 Options
Zack Wheeler (NYM)
Wheeler is coming off a five-inning, nine strikeout performance in his last start and has been a bit up and down this season. However, he’s worth a look for me as an inexpensive arm on FanDuel and especially an SP2 play on DraftKings. The Rockies lineup is a bit deceiving, especially after a good offensive series in Chicago, where the wind was blowing out at a substantial level. They have a 24.8 percent K rate on the road along with a .168 ISO, .290 wOBA, and 81 WRC+ (fifth-worst) away from Coors Field. Outside of guys like Nolan Arenado and Charlie Blackmon their lineup has a lot of holes that Wheeler should take advantage of.
Mike Foltynewicz (ATL)
Folty gets a shot at home against the Giants as the Braves return to Atlanta after sweeping the Mets in New York. Folty is coming off a strong start in Philly his last time out. There is no denying Folty’s talent and upside. His K/9 is a solid 10.97 and has a strong swinging strike rate of 10.2 percent. The problem with Folty is that sometimes he’s his own worst enemy. He wears his emotion on his sleeve on the mound and it’s clear as day when he misses a pitch, gives up a hit, walks someone – it happens too much. You would think some of these Brave coaches would be in this kid’s ear telling him to be more composed out there. That’s the only worry with Folty – something going wrong and having things spiral out of control. I don’t see that happening tonight against the Giants who are not overly imposing. He’s more of an FD play for me as he’s just $8,100 there as opposed to $9,400 on DK.
Walker Buehler (LAD)
I’m a big Buehler guy and he’s been solid in his first two big league starts. The Padres strike out a ton against righties, 27.4 percent of their plate appearances to be exact which is the highest mark in the majors. In his 10 innings, Buehler has 11 strikeouts and four walks, which are a bit higher than you want to see but three of those free passes came in his first start. He throws his fastball in the upper nineties, has a wipeout slider, and gets a ton of ground balls. Dave Roberts hasn’t babied Buhler to this point as he threw 89 pitches in his first start and 94 in his last. Buehler is a better value on FD at $7,700 rather than DK where he’s $8,600. The upside is huge for this kid and he’s in a great spot tonight.
Others to consider:
Carson Fulmer (CWS) – At $5,900 on FD and just $4,600 on DK he’s in play after back to back good starts going six innings and seven innings respectively. The win will be in doubt with him but at that salary, he should produce. I prefer him as an SP2 on DK.
Garrett Richards (LAA) – Richards had a nightmare of a start against the Yankees in his last start who came out swinging the bats hot. I prefer him on FD rather than DK and for a guy like Richards, who does have ace-type stuff, his salary of $7,300 is low. Richards has respectable numbers in Seattle and worth a look as a boom or bust option tonight.
Pitcher To Fade
Rick Porcello (BOS)
Porcello will grab some ownership tonight, especially on FD for the people are lazy and simply win hunting as the Red Sox are a -174 favorite. Who cares? That doesn’t make him a good play. Pitching in a hitter-friendly park with good hitting conditions against a very dangerous Rangers team. When the Rangers bats have games like they had last night – getting on base, not striking out, and getting everyone in the lineup going I become very wary of rostering a pitcher against them. They have a team full of streaky bats and last night could have been the start of a run for them. With all of the other options on the slate, I can’t get on board with Porcello who doesn’t have the strikeout upside that others do and potentially walking into a trap against the Rangers.
Other Fades:
Jose Quintana (CHC) – One start against the Brewers isn’t going to sell me on him. In his three starts prior to that one, he had allowed 15 earned runs. The Cardinals are a team that I rarely like to pick on anyway, but couple that with the warm weather and St. Louis and this is easy for me.
Gio Gonzalez (WAS) – I can’t stand Gio. Let me be clear about that. However, that’s not the only reason to fade him. He’s $8,800 on FD and $10,200 on DK. If I can get guys like Berrios, Folty, and Buehler for less on both sites I would much rather go that route than pay for a guy that’s thrown six complete innings in two of his six starts and struck out seven or more batter in just three of those starts.