Updates …
- Boston game should play IMO…. And Boston Bats are definitely in play now that some are scared off of it because of the rain. HanRam in the 2 hole is the guy to get here IMO. If you play Nunez, play JBJ as well
- No Aguilar for Brewers today — good, I didn’t wanna have to play his chalkiness
- Loving Toronto more and more.
Monday, April 30th
Welcome to a Monday DFS write-up, which is a great time to reflect on what has been going on and what is coming ahead.
Today is the final day of the month and we are gonna start to get good hitting conditions. Some analysis was done on a Royals blog site that talked about how all around the majors teams are setting record numbers for HH% and Exit Velocity but the run production was down. I’ll spare you the full details on this but the conclusion was basically that the weather in April was as bad as we have ever seen in the Majors and it’s obviously the cause for lower than expected offense. That said, I don’t think we’re gonna see nothing but 8-7 games all of the sudden when it heats up, but we’re gonna see a lot more cases where bad bullpens start to rear their ugly heads in May.
WEATHER
The only game with RAIN concerns tonight is in Boston, but they should play even if after a slight delay. It will be in the 50’s only which could limit what should be a chalky stack from going off tonight.
GOOD BALLPARKS IN PLAY
- Great American Ballpark in Cincy… Going to be in the 70+s all week
- Target Field in Minny … Good the next two days then cools off on Wed.
- Chase Field in Arizona … roof open all week
- Fenway Park in … come on … how do you not know where Fenway park is??? …Gonna be 80 on Wed/Thu, but chilly today.
Ballparks to monitor Starting Tuesday
- Cardinals at home vs White Sox (interleague) w/ 80+ degrees
- Oakland @ Seattle …
Teams Staying Home from Sunday to Monday
I have noticed a trend and I noticed it last year. There’s always 1 or 2 teams on Monday’s who are the must own team and they’re almost always teams who were home over the weekend and immediately have a home game on Monday. I haven’t really developed a theory behind it other than teams who are playing for the 4th (or more) consecutive time in the same ballpark usually will start to settle in…
Here are the teams who fit this criteria today…..
- Boston … Weather issues
- Cubs … Ding Ding Ding …
- Nationals … Facing good SP, bad bullpen.
- Marlins … Booorrring series with the Phils.
- Twins … Sanchez decent at times.
- Astros … Series of the week re-match with Yanks
- Giants … Not ideal hitting conditions
PITCHING
Do not confuse today’s pitching depth with having a ton of quality choices. This is more a slate about avoiding a bomb than chasing a 60 or even worrying about fading a 60…..
BEST OPTIONS
- JEFF SAMARZDJIA … Combined ownership between the two sites is the best way to measure if a pitcher is truly chalk and Shark will have that today. He’s got a good ballpark against a bottom half team on the road who strikes out a decent rate (especially vs RHP). Shark is the best option on both sites. Sorry to break this to you, but it’s the sad reality today.
- JON LESTER … Rockies 12 hits over weekend series against the Marlins! Got shut down by lefty arms and truthfully do not have a good lineup. This is a two man team with Story/DJ shutdown and I can live with only a 2 man team because they’re not gonna run and they’re gonna K a ton.
LONGSHOT(S)
- SONNY GRAY … He’s 5’10. I’m chasing the short pitchers vs the Astros narrative. That and the guy has not looked good his last few starts, so I am hoping he has made some tweaks and will mow down the Astros tonight. Hence, why it’s in the LONGSHOT tier.
POSITIONAL TARGETS
CATCHERS
Tom Hanks would be fond of this position today….
- Wilson Ramos – Questionable to play, but the hottest catcher in the game right now
- Wilson Contreras
- Salvador Perez
- Yasmani Grandal
FIRST BASE
There’s some value at the top here with guys against bad pitchers tonight but do not sleep on the studs, of whom Votto and Goldschmidt rank the best. Meanwhile, Anthony Rizzo is about to explode.
- Brad Miller – Great matchup with Jordan Zimmermann
- Jesus Aguilar – Chalk if he starts.
- Joey Votto – Do not overlook Votto and the Reds who are Red Hot (ha!) and face legit bottom 3 SP on the board. Brewers bullpen is good, but the Reds are being overlooked tonight IMO.
- Anthony Rizzo – Jump on his hot streak this week.
SECOND BASE
I personally feel this position is loaded today. If you have plenty of money here then Baez is the guy.
- Jonathan Villar – Would be nice to see him get a shot at the top of the order but the way the Brewers are winning with LoCain-Yelich there’s zero chance of that.
- Scooter Gennett
- Javy Baez – Only third because I want to build a balanced lineup and 4200 on FD is not balanced, but he’s honestly the person I want the most at this position.
THIRD BASE
- Yangervis Solarte – Profiles well for Target field IMO
- Travis Shaw – Brewers … Dont mind LvL matchup
- Raffy Devers
- Kris Bryant
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager – Greinke Masher and Chase Field Masher….
- Aledmys Diaz – I hate that he bats so low. If he were to say, oh I dunno, bat 2nd? That would be cool.
- Trea Turner – Trea versus RHP… Are you LISTENING YET? He will steal twice tonight.
- Addison Russell – Cheap
OUTFIELD – T1
- Ryan Braun … Top overall player today, tomorrow and Wednesday
- Lorenzo Cain, Domingo Santana, Christian Yelich, Robin Yount, Geoff Jenkins, Jeffrey Hammonds, Greg Vaughn …. All the other Brewer outfielders too
- Starling Marte
OUTFIELD – T2
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Chris Taylor
- Denard Span, Carlos Gomez
- David Peralta
- Scott Schebler
OUTFIELD – T3
- Curtis Granderson
- Jackie Bradley Jr
- Jorge Soler
- Aaron Altherr
- JOC the GRANDAL
STACKS
BREWERS … They will be chalk and for good reason against Brandon Finnegan. They’re in a fantastic spot despite being cold over the weekend against the Cubs. Braun should be in every lineup this week as he rakes in this ballpark and doesn’t need to juice to get it out. Don’t be shocked if Finnegan manages to not implode entirely and get through 5 IP tonight, but that still means we get some juicy Reds bullpen.
CUBS … I love the Cubs now that Wrigley is gonna start warming up. Theyre a ticking time bomb and they’re very sensitive about the weather if you ask me. It’s only gonna be low 60’s but we do have good winds out to left field tonight. I want to be on the Rizzo double dong game before everyone else is and against a lefty that’s the perfect time to jump on him. Baez/Contreras are the safe plays here.
BLUE JAYS … Twins are reeling right now and Lance Lynn won’t go deep into the game, giving Toronto’s bats some late inning hope against a bad bullpen. I faded them yesterday and paid for it, but this is a good spot again for Solarte/Smoak/Teoscar. If Al Diaz plays look hard at him at SS.
SNEAKY
REDS … With so many other options tonight the Reds, who are on fire, face Chacin the worst pitcher on the road on this slate and how are we not looking hard at 1-4 for the Reds who should get 2 AB minimum versus Chacin? The Brewers bullpen is really good so I would avoid going heavy on the Reds tonight, but Votto/Gennett are both in prime HR spots.
DIAMONDBACKS … DUH, the Roof is open. Stripper is pitching tonight for the Dodgers. Diamondbacks have cooled off offensively but always are in play at home. And they’ll be … contrarian! which is always a nice thing, if you are into that sorta logic. Goldy & Peralta
DODGERS … Death, Taxes and me stacking against Greinke at home with the roof open. Joc’n the Grandal… Joc’n the Grandal…. SEAAAGERR GONNA HOOOMMERRRR….
DONGERS CLUB
- Corey Seager – SS – Chairman
- Ryan Braun – OF
- Jonathan Villar – 2B
- Lorenzo Cain – OF
- Yangervis Solarte – 3B
- Anthony Rizzo – 1B
- Yasmani Grandal – C
- Carlos Gomez – OF
- BONUS …………………. Aledmys Diaz – SS
