As the 2018 season is officially here, preseason games are underway, which means massive assumptions and overreactions will rule the upcoming weeks. Ameer Abdullah was once the preseason darling who instantly tripled his value after one impressive run. He then went on to do nothing but underwhelm and struggle for the following two seasons. These first four weeks of the season provide opportunities to, yes, scout players and see a glimpse of what they may become at some point in their careers, but also see patterns in which players are used in their respective offenses. A certain pattern which has been somewhat subtle over the past couple years is the Atlanta Falcons’ backfield. Devonta Freeman has been on the most consistent backs in the league since his breakout in 2015; however, what if I told you that Freeman is not the super-safe asset he is widely considered to be? Based on several different factors such as his market share of carries, decreased usage in the passing game, and tread on his tires, that’s why Devonta Freeman is our Bust of the Year at the end of this season.
When Freeman burst onto the scene in 2015, he took advantage of all 265 carries and turned them into 1,056 yards and 11 touchdowns in 15 games. As the Falcons’ lead back, he handled the mass majority of the carries and surrendered few carries to the other backs. The following year, Freeman carried the rock 227 times for 1,079 yards and another 11 touchdowns. Though his yardage and efficiency rose, he lost carries to fellow running back Tevin Coleman, the team’s third-round draft choice in 2015. Though Freeman has been fantastic both as a player and fantasy asset, the numbers never lie. His market share of carries has dropped each of the past two seasons.
| Year | Games | Carries | Carries per Game | Change |
| 2015 | 15 | 265 | 17.66 | — |
| 2016 | 16 | 227 | 14.19 | -19.65% |
| 2017 | 14 | 196 | 14 | -1.3% |
In addition to Freeman’s decreasing work in the run game, his usage as a receiver has dropped significantly since he took over as the lead back. With the presence of backup running back Tevin Coleman, former coach Kyle Shanahan recognized both players talents and began utilizing the two very similarly. Freeman was used most in the passing game during his second year when he saw a whopping 97 targets and 73 receptions. Though most figured this workload was due to stay the same, the actual numbers may be surprising.
| Year | Games | Targets | Targets per Game | Change |
| 2015 | 15 | 97 | 6.46 | — |
| 2016 | 16 | 65 | 4.06 | -37.15% |
| 2017 | 14 | 47 | 3.36 | -17.24% |
The third and final reason that Devonta Freeman may bust in 2018 is the rise of fellow running back Tevin Coleman. The 6’1″ 210-pound Indiana product has been an absolute force as the second option in the Falcon offense. Where Freeman’s carries and targets have consistently declined since 2015, Coleman’s have risen. Their respective total opportunity shares since 2015 are shown in the graph below (via @FFD260). Should those numbers stay consistent with recent years, Coleman and Freeman should finish 2018 with nearly identical opportunity shares.
Should Freeman’s opportunity share remain on track to decline again in 2018, using his previous years’ carries and targets workload, he projects to see roughly 200 carries and 39 targets. Assuming he maintains his efficiency, this equates to 880 rushing yards and 250 receiving yards. In PPR leagues, he should catch around 78.33% of his targets, his average catch rate over the last three years. As for his projected touchdowns, expect the final count to be anywhere from 6-8. The total points would equal about 180, which would have been good for RB17 in 2017. Other running backs in this range were Jerick McKinnon and CJ Anderson, both of whom were solid RB2’s in PPR leagues. Is this RB17 worth drafting this highly in fantasy drafts?
Tevin Coleman’s ability to run the football with speed and power will soon elevate his game to the next level. Devonta Freeman has always struggled with long speed, but Coleman finds the hole and hits it with great burst and acceleration and rarely allows defenders to catch him. In the video below, at 0:28, Coleman takes the handoff and displays his patience while the offensive lineman creates a hole in the right side of the line. Once he sees his path, Coleman flies through it and eats up a massive chunk of yardage against the Pittsburgh defense.
Devonta Freeman is consistently being drafted in the late second round of drafts, according to ADP. Players such as Jordan Howard, Stefon Diggs, and Rob Gronkowski are being taken after Freeman is off the board. All three of those players have much easier paths to guaranteed success in 2018. Should Freeman end up in a full-blown committee this season, he will bust in 2018 if he is your second-round pick. Take your chances on other players in that range who have similar upsides but safer floors. No matter what the yardage and touchdown totals were in previous seasons, avoid Devonta Freeman and reap the rewards of allowing another league mate to select him.
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